Updated September 27, 2026
Quick answer: The best time to buy a home is not determined by a calendar or a predicted interest-rate drop. Buying now may make sense when your finances are stable, the payment fits your budget, you expect to remain in the home long enough to justify the costs, and the property supports your goals. Waiting may be wiser when your income, savings, credit or plans are still changing.
What does Maryland’s 2026 housing market show?
Maryland is not one single market, but the statewide numbers help explain what buyers are experiencing. Maryland REALTORS® reported that 5,582 homes sold in August 2026, an 8.5% decrease from August 2025. The statewide median sales price was $445,000, up 2.3% year over year.
Supply remained tight. Active inventory stood at 16,897 homes—13.7% below the previous August—and new listings declined 23.6%. Maryland had approximately three months of inventory. In other words, sales slowed, but limited selection continued to support prices.
Conditions vary considerably by county, community, price point and property type. A townhome in Columbia may face different competition from a detached home in Glen Burnie, Ellicott City, Catonsville or Pasadena. Before deciding whether to buy or wait, compare recent sales and active listings within the specific market you are targeting.
What are mortgage rates doing?
Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.03% on September 24, 2026. That national average is a useful reference—not a quote for an individual borrower. Your actual rate and costs depend on factors including credit, down payment, loan type, occupancy, property and lender.
Mortgage rates can change quickly, and no one can promise when they will decline. Waiting for a lower rate can improve affordability if rates fall, but it can also bring renewed competition or higher prices. Buying solely because you assume you can refinance later is risky; refinancing is never guaranteed and involves qualification and costs.
When buying now may make sense
- Your finances are ready. You have dependable income, manageable debt, appropriate reserves and funds for the down payment, closing and initial home expenses.
- The complete payment is comfortable. You have reviewed principal, interest, property taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance when applicable, HOA or condominium fees and expected maintenance.
- You expect to stay for several years. A longer ownership horizon can provide more time to absorb transaction costs and normal market changes.
- You found a property that meets your priorities. The home fits your budget and important needs without requiring you to compromise your financial safety.
- You are prepared to compete strategically. Tight Maryland inventory means well-positioned properties can still attract attention, even when overall sales activity slows.
When waiting may be the better decision
- Your employment, income or preferred location is uncertain.
- You need additional time to improve credit or reduce high-interest debt.
- The purchase would leave you without adequate emergency or repair reserves.
- You have not reviewed the full monthly cost with a qualified lender.
- You may need to move again soon and would have little time to recover buying and selling costs.
Waiting with a written plan is different from waiting for a perfect market. If you are not ready today, establish specific savings, credit and timing goals so you can act when your position improves.
Could waiting make a home more expensive?
Yes, but it could also improve your options. The outcome depends on the interaction of prices, rates, inventory and your finances. Maryland’s August 2026 median price was higher than a year earlier even though fewer homes sold. That illustrates why slower activity does not automatically mean lower prices.
A useful comparison is to model several scenarios with a lender: today’s estimated payment, a lower-rate scenario and a higher-price scenario. Include taxes, insurance and applicable fees—not just principal and interest. This gives you a personal decision framework instead of relying on headlines.
Five steps to take before deciding
- Talk with a qualified lender. Review loan choices, estimated cash to close and a payment range that leaves room for the rest of your life.
- Define the right geographic search. Compare communities, commute patterns, home types and property taxes.
- Study recent local sales. Statewide headlines cannot replace neighborhood-level comparable data.
- Inspect your timeline. Consider employment, household changes and how long you expect to own the home.
- Build an offer strategy before touring. Understand inspections, appraisal, financing and competitive terms before the right home appears.
Frequently asked questions
Will Maryland home prices drop if sales slow?
Not necessarily. Sales volume and prices can move differently. In August 2026, Maryland home sales declined year over year while the median sales price increased. Local supply and demand determine what happens in an individual community.
Should I wait until mortgage rates fall?
Consider your present budget and goals rather than relying on a rate prediction. If rates decline, competition and prices may respond. If today’s complete payment is not comfortable, waiting and strengthening your finances may be appropriate.
Can I refinance after buying?
Possibly, but refinancing is not guaranteed. Future rates, equity, credit, income, property value and loan guidelines will matter, and refinancing generally involves costs.
How much money should I keep after closing?
The right reserve depends on your circumstances and the property. Discuss loan requirements with your lender and keep funds available for moving, maintenance and unexpected repairs instead of using every available dollar at closing.
Is fall a good time to buy in Maryland?
Fall can provide opportunities, but the answer is property- and market-specific. Some buyers encounter less competition, while limited new listings may reduce selection. Evaluate the homes actually available in your target area.
The bottom line
You do not need to predict the market perfectly. You need a purchase that remains comfortable if rates and prices do not move the way you hope. I help Central Maryland buyers compare communities, understand recent local sales, evaluate property tradeoffs and build a clear offer strategy without pressure.
Search Central Maryland homes, read my Ellicott City 21042 vs. 21043 buyer guide, or ask Nick how this applies to you.
Nick Johnson, REALTOR® | Compass
443-676-4097
I’m never too busy for your referrals.
Sources: Maryland REALTORS® August 2026 Housing Stats, published September 14, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey as of September 24, 2026. This article is general information and is not lending, legal, tax or financial advice.
